When are we going back to the bare essentials of racing!?
Forget the tyre temp, forget the weather temp, forget that tyre is faster than that tyre. A tyre last's for so many laps driving normal, you drive hard and eat the tyre up sooner or drive easy and extend the life of the tyre.
Your projected 2 stop race might become a 4 or 5 stopper due to driver lock ups or following another car for too long. It takes life out of the tyre, forcing you to make changes. Back off or carry on and stop sooner than expected to get fresh boots. There's always the problem of fresh rubber is faster than used rubber, might have to pit just to cover someone off.