Additionally there are 10 minutes between the last moment to save the strategy and the race start. Not that much time but in my experience enough for the weather to change. In Joeys expert guide above you find links to wunderground.com weather stations near the tracks that give, more or less accurately, an idea what to expect.
No, you can just guess how it will develop from spectating races at the time of setting up and comparing it to the real weather prediction. The game is usually at least 15min behind the real weather but that delay differs between races, so yours might be even up to 30mins, or perhaps even more, behind which makes things even harder to predict.