Solved

Strategy Help - Fuel Levels & Tyre Temps

I realise the answer to this might be "Do more races, record the stats" - but I want to ask in case I'm missing something.

So, in preparation for a race, I do the practice laps on the different tyres, do my sums for fastest overall race time based on tyre wear/lap speed for the optimum tyre combination, factoring in pit stop duration, however the one thing I'm struggling to factor in is the lap speed on high fuel loads, given the timings/wear on the practice laps are based on low fuel amounts.

First part is tyre temps - I've done a full season now to work out that Softer tyres will just overheat in too high temps, and will be the same pace as a harder tyre (due to having a low push level to keep the tyres in optimum temp).
Is there any rough guide as to how to work out which tyres are best in which temperatures? or any way to work it out from practice?

Second part is fuel loads - when doing practice laps, there's no way of doing practice laps on different fuel amounts.
Is there any rough guide as to how to work out impact on lap timings for low/high fuel loads? or any way to work it out from practice?

Practice times in this game aren't really useful in determining your precise race pace unfortunately, especially because you can't simulate fuel loads. One thing to watch out for is % of tyre wear; however note that the amount your tyres wear per lap will gradually decrease as the stint goes on.

Past race history is thus the most helpful in determining what strat is best for the track and the conditions. A general rule of thumb about pace of tyres is that while Hards are the most popular tyres atm (due to being easy to use as you can poosh veli 'arrd and they literally don't wear over a proper stint), softs are generally faster than Hards when they are both above 50% tyre life and running in optimal temperatures (in the black when you see the tyre heat gauge in the live viewer). This means softs work best in cooler conditions, but also in conditions where they don't wear so fast (this is why in tracks like China and Spain, Hards are still a better option even in colder weather due to the high tyre wear in those tracks).

An example of how differences in track conditions can affect which strats are competitive (example is 50% race distance):
Hungary in 30C: supers and softs will overheat and thus not be in optimal pace, even worse when they wear below 50%. Hence in this condition, 1 stop H/H or even S/H if you want to start with track position will be better than 2 stops.

In the 10Cs however, supers and softs will be within optimal temperature range to perform. Hence 2 stops on softer tyres will be much more competitive in these conditions.

Also note that there is an advantage in starting on soft tyres in terms of track position and pace during the initial few laps, another thing to factor in your strategy which is also highly dependent on track and conditions.

As for fuel loads, there is a definite effect even when one of your cars is 1 lap heavier than the other. I'm not a number cruncher so I can't give you precise numbers, though.