I wouldn't write off the red cars just yet... Whilst S3 and Monaco may well be similar, the rest of the track isn't, so no doubt they will have specific aero package for Monaco which would've compromised their speeds in S1 & S2 this weekend.
As for the Mercs, well I'm not too sure on the future of Lewis. I've never really liked the chap (too "Americanised" for me) but I wish him well. However, despite all his bravado, I don't think he is as mentally stable as the press would have us believe. He has talent, no doubt there, but in the same way as Ronnie O'Sulivan does. On the right day he is untouchable, but every so often he will crumble. I predict that he won't win a race all season, and next year he won't be in F1, but maybe Indy or Nascar...