"Chris
I think there are multiple factors that affect qualifying. I am yet to see it as a lottery in my league. But basically with qualifying there appear to be 4 things that make the real difference regarding where you qualify. First of all tires, Softs will out qualify hards, baring the situation being rookie vs experienced driver/team. Secondly fuel load, the shorter your first stint the more likely you are to be at the front of the grid. Thirdly the drivers aggression, it appears to affect how fast the tires come up to a good operating temperature, and from my experience has direct results not only to grid position but how fast the driver enters and exits the pits, and gets up to speed. Lastly the level you ask your driver to race at appears to affect your qualifying result, say take it easy, and viola he will take it easy and not qualify as well as if you told him to take big risks.
We all know factors such as talent, and design levels also affect things, but what I have outlined above appears to be very defining factors in the end result of qualifying.
I'm also going to point out a few more things aswell.
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[*]Traffic exists in qualifying. You can lose time trying to pass a car on a flying lap.
[*]Weather can change during qualification, so when cars leave the garage and start and finish their laptime, there is easily a weather change.
[*]Driver mistakes exist in this game, many have seen these in practice lap setups.
[*]Car performance and component wear effects qualification
[*]Car setup also effects qualification. It is possible to optimize a qualification setup but is terrible to handle at heavy fuels.
[*]It is possible that the Technical Director plays a part in the Qualifying.
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